The Election and Aftermath

With less than two weeks to go in the campaign season, the outcome of the presidential election seems to have already been determined. Incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, of the New Azerbaijan Party, is running for re-election with all of his major opposition boycotting the election.

The NAP and it's supporters could argue that Aliyev would win re-election, regardless of which opposition ran, as he instituted new campaign techniques(see earlier post) and would have a healthy advantage in cash on hand.

However, the opposition's boycott, stemming from their allegations of election impropriety in both the 2005 Parliamentary and 2003 Presidential elections, gives rise to the question of what will happen after the election? We can assume, based on Azerbaijan's political history that the opposition parties will protest, but will they be relatively peaceful, like the protests of 2005 or more violent, similar to the protests of 2003's election?

I'd contend that the overall tone of the protests will be peaceful for a few reasons. First, the government has cracked down on opposition following the 2003 election. Curbing free speech and free assembly, they forced the opposition parties to protest with strict regulations on time and place and denied a number of protest applications. (http://hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/azerbaijan1105/1.htm#_Toc120082501) Also here (http://hrw.org/english/docs/2005/10/31/azerba11943.htm)

By boycotting the election, the opposition leaders also lose their credibility to protest the result, an implication that could also minimize the risk of violent protest as people can't necessarily feel that their votes were stolen.

The second principle that would likely limit the size and scope of protesting is the media bias during the campaign. Nearly all of the Azeri press has been supportive of the Aliyev campaign, and the government has cracked down on opposition press, going so far as to jail a reporter. (http://www.rferl.org/content/Azerbaijani_Election_Campaign_Opens/1200756.html, http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/04/26/azerba15790.htm) With the threat of imprisonment or worse, opposition press has a strong incentive to remain quiet, a situation that could mask the undemocratic nature of the upcoming election.