Waiting Game

It is hard to tell what the Azeri people are going to do concerning the election that took place over one month ago. It seems as though they have just given up on trying to receive a permit to rally. With Aliyev growing in power and creating more restrictions on the media, the Azeri people need to step up to the plate and demand for change. With the next presidential election in 5 years, I do not think the Azeri people can wait that long to remove Aliyev from power, especially since his party is trying to remove the term limit. With Aliyev’s last term, if them term limit is removed, and then Azerbaijan is in some serious trouble that could result in an authorities system. It is important to keep an eye on that in the election in 5 years. Azerbaijan has some serious problems to fix before the next election or the people might create their own Rose Revolution.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/election/azerbaijan/aew102700b.shtml

Azerbaijan's Future

Looking at Azerbaijan’s past elections, the oppositions have expressed their grievances to the courts of appeal and there are talks on how to effectively change the constitution in order to facilitate free and fair elections in future. In recent talks in Helinski, there were recommendations for the OSCE to contribute post-election conflict because they were a crucial part of the international processes.

Some of the recommendations by International observers to develop a democratic atmosphere in Azerbaijan were; separate state affairs from religion, high quality, free and independent media to promote dialogue with civic society and finally to maintain international democratic standards and comply with OSCE and Council of Europe resolutions and commitments.

Even though the courts of appeal rejected the opposition’s appeals, it would be interesting to observe whether the intensity of talks with the international community will be influential in Azerbaijan’s future elections.

 Sources:

http://avciya.az/eng/uploads/posts/kitablar/elect_2008_in_docs_eng.pdf

http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=cat&catid=143&subcatid=106&lang=EN&page=1

http://www.azerbaijan.az/_News/_news_e.html?lang=en

 

More Azeri Government Restrictions?

Azerbaijan journalist Eynulla Fatullayev, was arrested and thrown in jail in 2007 based on an article the government deemed as a terrorist threat, and some senior elite businessmen were afraid of an attack. November 17, 2008, Fatullayev filed a lawsuit suing the Foreign Minister because the Foreign Minister refused to tell Fatullayev the names of the men who found the article threatening.

This arrest was very unsettling for the United States. The United States perceived it as throwing a potential Azeri journalist in jail since he was not part of the NAP. This could be Azerbaijan’s government cracking down on the opposition, but since the government considered a possibility in rehearing Fatullayev’s case, it gave hope to the United States and other humanitarian organizations that Azerbaijan is not going to restrict the Azeri rights.

Another instance that makes the world nervous is the issue of the main opposition parties website, Azadliq. Azadliq had anti-Aliyev, which was making the government nervous. The intelligence agencies started to crack down on anti-Aliyev and those websites and people who discuss mobilization, protest, and opposition of the NAP. As it turns out, Azadliq’s website was attacked, then the archives of the whole website were deleted, allegedly down by Azeri intelligence.

This further asks the question if Azerbaijan is going to lose more rights with Aliyev’s second term, and if the government is going to turn into a more authoritarian government. This leads me to believe that the opposition is going to have a sudden mobilization by the opposition that the government is not going to expect. When it happens there will be harsh repression from the government, leading Aliyev to more power.


http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184028689&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184026486&cisb=22_T5184026485&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=5

http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184028689&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184026486&cisb=22_T5184026485&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=1

http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184086549&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184084899&cisb=22_T5184084898&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=2

OSCE Findings

Even though the official OSCE reports on the October 15, 2008 Presidential elections will take approximately two months to complete, there has been findings by the OSCE. These findings indicated an overall improved electoral process with a few shortcomings. Most of the improvement in this year's election was with the election administration process; observers indicated that there was less interference by the authorities during the process, violence free atmosphere, there was transparency due to the increased presence of international and local non-partisan observers and party lists were available to the public within deadlines. On the other hand there were problems with the existing Election Code, it did not cover matters that might have made a difference in this year's election, these problems included candidate registration matters, media coverage and complaints and appeals processes. While certain changes by the CEC on the election code improved this year's election administration, there is no way to completely assure voting irregularities or violations.

http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/10/34414_en.pdf

The Next 5 Years

Aliyev’s pre-election platform was not a typical platform. He added a lot of propaganda, and did not outline any policies that he would create over the next 5 years. Supporters believe there will be more democratization and reforms, and addition personnel changes with political innovation to catch them up to the rest of the world. The opposition believes that Aliyev will do the opposite, and not worry about Azerbaijan becoming more democratic, leaving the country the way in its current state. Despite pressures Aliyev would receive from the international community, he will become more authoritarian, going back to Soviet conditions.
Either way the Azeri people look at what Aliyev may do, it will be crucial to Azerbaijan, and determine Aliyev’s fate as a politician. Personally, I believe that Aliyev will try to make it a more authoritarian government while still trying to make the Azeri people happy along the way to accept a transition to a more authoritarian government.
Oddly enough, on November 9, 2008, the New Azerbaijan Party proposed to hold a referendum on removing the ban on the number of terms an Azeri president can hold office. Since Aliyev is in his second presidential term, unless this referendum could get passed, the next 5 years is his last 5 years. The NAP states that the constitution should hold no such restriction on the president.
Sure enough the opposition party responded this week on November 10 demanding a fresh presidential election due to “numerous irregularities” (3). This could be because they want their shot to run in the election after they decided that refusing to run would do nothing but be a bad decision when the results came out, or because they are afraid the referendum will be passed.
Main questions regarding this information are that the opposition wants a new election because they regret boycotting the election, or because they are afraid the referendum will be passed? Also, how will the Azeri people respond to no limit to the presidential election? Will the reaction of the referendum be good, or cause suspicion about Aliyev among the Azeri people?

1.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112691255&format=GNBFI&sort=DATE,A,H&startDocNo=76&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112691202&cisb=22_T5112694379&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=76
2.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112879009&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112874014&cisb=22_T5112874013&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=6
3.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112879009&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112874014&cisb=22_T5112874013&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=5

No Protesting - Why?

The day of the election, one walking down the street would not know that it was Election Day. There were no campaign busses, no banners, and no posters. In fact, no real opposition, since the major opposition group refused to take part in the election, claiming the government had “twisted the rules so much that fair competition was impossible” (http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34784389). In fact, in the 2005 Parliamentary election, officials in some precincts became very nervous when the opposition had a majority of the votes. Officials in some of those precincts had the police seize the votes and dispose of them. Even though there have not been results of fraud in this past presidential election, or no protests have occurred, it seems as though there must have been some fraud since it is apparent in past elections. Just because it has not been exposed, it might.
Since there is no protesting going on, maybe they are planning something bigger than a protest. In October 2005, the health minister was arrested after allegedly planning a coup. It is possible that the opposition party is gathering more supporters, perhaps in the government sphere to arrange a successful coup. It is hard to say what is going to occur, but since it has been weeks after the election, this is possibly the only way they think they can get their voice heard in their “free” democratic country.

Sources:
http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34769650
http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34784389
Book: Caucasus Region: Geopolitical Nexus? By: Aleksandro I. Kapidze

Recommendations

With failed attempted public demonstration of dissatisfaction with the Presidential elect and court of appeal rejecting the opposition party’s lawsuit, there is increasing talk of changing Azerbaijan’s constitution. The constitution guarantees a candidate to run for two, 5-year consecutive terms if elected. By changing the constitution, the opposition hopes to create a more competitive environment for democracy to excel. According to the OSCE post-election report, Azerbaijan’s future elections need to meet international standards and promote competitive and robust political atmosphere. Some of the recommendations in the OSCE report include, emphasis on honesty in campaigning and mass media.

http://avciya.az/eng/news/inthecountry/1800-osce-comments-on-presidential-elections.html

http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1327551&lang=EN

Aftermath of the Election

It is no surprise to hear that President Ilham Aliyev was reelected president. With the major opposition party protesting by not taking part in the election Aliyev was reelected with 89% of the population’s vote. The second place candidate took a total of 2.78% of the vote. After the expected results, leaders of the opposition party decided to hold a demonstration against the conduct and rules of voting in the election. Officials decided to no approve this election since they refused to participate in the election.
One opposition leader from the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan held a news conference stating that state employees were forced to vote for Aliyev by officials. There were also alleged reports of carousel fraud and stamping cards stating which students had participated in voting. Government officials came out saying that the allegations are untrue, and the reason why they chose not to run because they know they would have lost the election to Aliyev.
Despite the alleged fraud from the opposition parties, there was reported a celebration in the streets from Aliyev supporters to another term for Aliyev.
It is not clear whether there will be a rebellion from the opposition parties joining together to try protest Aliyev’s term. I do not think it will occur, but if they want to put an end to the fraud they believe in, then I think it is actually possible for them to hold a rebellion.

http://www.res.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?lng=en&id=92834
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav101608bf.shtml

The Election and Aftermath

With less than two weeks to go in the campaign season, the outcome of the presidential election seems to have already been determined. Incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, of the New Azerbaijan Party, is running for re-election with all of his major opposition boycotting the election.

The NAP and it's supporters could argue that Aliyev would win re-election, regardless of which opposition ran, as he instituted new campaign techniques(see earlier post) and would have a healthy advantage in cash on hand.

However, the opposition's boycott, stemming from their allegations of election impropriety in both the 2005 Parliamentary and 2003 Presidential elections, gives rise to the question of what will happen after the election? We can assume, based on Azerbaijan's political history that the opposition parties will protest, but will they be relatively peaceful, like the protests of 2005 or more violent, similar to the protests of 2003's election?

I'd contend that the overall tone of the protests will be peaceful for a few reasons. First, the government has cracked down on opposition following the 2003 election. Curbing free speech and free assembly, they forced the opposition parties to protest with strict regulations on time and place and denied a number of protest applications. (http://hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/azerbaijan1105/1.htm#_Toc120082501) Also here (http://hrw.org/english/docs/2005/10/31/azerba11943.htm)

By boycotting the election, the opposition leaders also lose their credibility to protest the result, an implication that could also minimize the risk of violent protest as people can't necessarily feel that their votes were stolen.

The second principle that would likely limit the size and scope of protesting is the media bias during the campaign. Nearly all of the Azeri press has been supportive of the Aliyev campaign, and the government has cracked down on opposition press, going so far as to jail a reporter. (http://www.rferl.org/content/Azerbaijani_Election_Campaign_Opens/1200756.html, http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/04/26/azerba15790.htm) With the threat of imprisonment or worse, opposition press has a strong incentive to remain quiet, a situation that could mask the undemocratic nature of the upcoming election.

Fraud in Past Azerbaijan Elections

It is easy to say in the last election when Ilham Aliyev was elected president, there was widespread fraud. When Haydar Aliyev was elected president, he put his own family members into governmental positions. So it was not surprised that after Haydar past away, his son Ilham took power. Much of the public was not okay with this because it was known that he was into gambling and drinking, rather than running a country.
Fraud was noticed right for when citizens went to place their vote. In the districts where Aliyev was not supported and the opposition was their name was not on the official voter’ list. In other districts, there were more names on the list than people living in that particular district. There were cameras watching people placing their vote, and police units watching them, intimidating the voter with their looks. Other districts there were employers saying if they vote for this person they wouldn’t have a job anymore. Violence even erupted outside the polling stations by opposition parties.
When the results were released, a war or coup did not occur, but rather rallies so violent that there was physical brutality, arrests, and death. On October 16, there were 15,000 opposition supporters went face to face with 5,000 policemen, resulting in 5 deaths. The rebels were using metal pipes, tree branches, and sharpened stakes to fight the policemen. It is said that it was the worst protest and suppression from an election result. In the days following, there were over 300 arrests, and the election officials refused to confirm the ballot results in each district. Weeks after there was still more protesting, but not as severe.
The election is only a few weeks away, with the opposition party boycotting, it will be interesting to see how the people of Azerbaijan react to the result of the presidential election.
Source: http://www.ciaonet.org.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/olj/si/si_2_12/si_2_12_sab01.pdf

Here are also some additional websites to go to for more information on the 2005 presidential election:
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2003/10/13/azerba6448.htm - Human Rights Watch on Azerbaijan’s election
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/10/international/asia/10azerbaijan.html - Crowd Protests Fraud in Azerbaijan Vote, written to help us understand the people’s reaction to the fraud.

Opposition

As of 09/15/2008 the Azerbaijan CEC(Central Election Commission) had officially registered 7 Presidential candidates for the October 15 2008 Presidential Elections. The link below shows the list of Presidential candidates including the opposition party candidates, parties affiliation and dates of registration.

http://www.cec.gov.az/en/7president2008/candidate.htm

Concerns by the opposition over having free and fair elections has resulted to recent amendments of the Azerbaijan Election code which if implemented would improve the elections process. Some of  the of the changes are; inking voters to prevent multiple voting, elimination of envelopes from the voting process, explicit prohibition against against interference with the election process and changes to the considerations and complains .http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/07/32174_en.pdf

Some of the amendments however, prove to be a challenge to the opposition, such as limiting their campaigning efforts by reduction of campaign time to more than half from 60 to 28 day prior to the election.

NAP

The New Azerbaijan Party is a center-right party, currently boasting over 400,000 members, created in the wake of the Soviet Union. Created in 1988 by a group of intellectuals led by Heydar Aliyev, the New Azerbaijan Party’s goals are, “…aimed at strengthening the state independency, building democratic, legal, and secular state and ensuring the peaceful and prosperous life of the citizens.” (www.yap.org.az)

In 1993, Aliyev was elected President and the party saw sweeping gains in the 1995 parliamentary elections. The NAP won again in 2003 with the election of IIham Aliyev, previously the NAP deputy chairman, who captured over 76% of the vote. The 2003 election was highly controversial, as Human Rights Watch held that the NAP manipulated the election to win. "Human Rights Watch research found that the government has heavily intervened in the campaigning process in favor of Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev, son of current President Heidar Aliyev. The government has stacked the Central Election Commission and local election commission with its supporters, and banned local non-governmental organizations from monitoring the vote. As the elections draw nearer, government officials have openly sided with the campaign of Ilham Aliyev, constantly obstructing opposition rallies and attempting to limit public participation in opposition events. In some cases, local officials have closed all the roads into town during opposition rallies, or have extended working and school hours - on one occasion, even declaring a Sunday work day - to prevent participation in opposition rallies." (http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/azerbaijan/index.htm)

See also: http://www.osce.org/documents/html/pdftohtml/1151_en.pdf.html

Despite the allegations of impropriety, the NAP seems to be positioned for another win. With the major opposition party boycotting the election, the incumbent president, Aliyev should win re-election with no problem. However, even it seems as if Aliyev would still have a good chance to win the election as a few former opposition leaders have decided to back him. (http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1298175&lang=EN)

Additionally, the NAP is planning on rolling out new election strategies that draw heavily on those used in other countries, with a new slogan and increasing the use of technology in trying to get their message out. (http://news.trendaz.com/?show=news&newsid=1296591&lang=EN)

A Political Overview

Azerbaijan faces many challenges in the face of its upcoming presidential election on October 15^th 2008. The purpose of this website will be to keep a track of the news and politics surrounding the election as it unfolds over the next month and then track the subsequent implications of the results that follow.

Brief History:

Azerbaijan’s presidential republic was established with a written constitution on November 12^th, 2005. The political system consists of three-branches, executive, legislative and judicial. In theory these branches are to function autonomously and provide for a clear separation of powers. However it is to be noted that one party is in-charge of both the legislature and the executive for over a decade now. This has led some to believe that true political competition does not exist in Azerbaijan. The Legislative is made up of The National Assembly or Milli Maclis, a unicameral legislature. The executive branch consists of an elected president that carries out the executive powers and a prime minister who is assigned and has far less influence on policy-making.

Elections:

On a national level Azerbaijan elects a head of state which is the president and a legislature. Legislative elections are held in November every five years. Before 2005, 100 members of the National Assembly were elected through single-seat constituencies and 25 members were elected by proportional representation. Since then all 125 members are elected in single-seat constituencies. The president is elected by the people and also serves a five year term. This system of voting lends itself to creating a one party dominant state in Azerbaijan. The party in-charge of both the legislature and the executive is the New Azerbaijan Party, with the current head of state, and incumbent for the upcoming election, Ilham Aliyev. Outside parties are allowed but when they come into opposition with the reigning party they are politically suppressed and undermined.

Opposition:

The October 2003 presidential elections provided a clear picture of the frustration that opposition leaders are having in trying to find a political voice in Azerbaijan. As was expected in this election, Ilham Aliyev, the son of the outgoing president, Heydar Aliyev, was elected to office without any hope for opposition. International observers held that the election was by no means free or fair. In recent years an opposition has started to brew in Azerbaijan, most notable the Azadlig Coalition composing of three opposition parties: Musavat Party, Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, Azerbaijan Democratic Party. The coalition managed to win some seats in the 2005 legislative elections but recent amendments by the National Assembly threaten to divide the coalition. Parts of the Azadlig Coalition have threatened to boycott the election because they feel the recent amendments are once again to silence the opposition. So the questions remain, will there be an opposition that stands against incumbent Aliyev in the upcoming election? And even if someone does stand-up, do recent rule changes threaten any hope of a successful opposition? Is the one-party system here to stay? These are questions that will continue to be explored in future posts.

Helpful Websites:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/aj.html (Info about Azerbaijan)

http://www.meclis.gov.az/ (National Assembly Homepage)

http://www.president.az/index.php?lang=en (President Ilham Aliyev’s Homepage)

http://www.yap.org.az/en/ (The New Azerbaijan Party Homepage)

http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=336 (Info on Legislative Elections)

http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/azerbaijan/index.htm (Info on 2003 Presidential Election)