Waiting Game

It is hard to tell what the Azeri people are going to do concerning the election that took place over one month ago. It seems as though they have just given up on trying to receive a permit to rally. With Aliyev growing in power and creating more restrictions on the media, the Azeri people need to step up to the plate and demand for change. With the next presidential election in 5 years, I do not think the Azeri people can wait that long to remove Aliyev from power, especially since his party is trying to remove the term limit. With Aliyev’s last term, if them term limit is removed, and then Azerbaijan is in some serious trouble that could result in an authorities system. It is important to keep an eye on that in the election in 5 years. Azerbaijan has some serious problems to fix before the next election or the people might create their own Rose Revolution.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/election/azerbaijan/aew102700b.shtml

Azerbaijan's Future

Looking at Azerbaijan’s past elections, the oppositions have expressed their grievances to the courts of appeal and there are talks on how to effectively change the constitution in order to facilitate free and fair elections in future. In recent talks in Helinski, there were recommendations for the OSCE to contribute post-election conflict because they were a crucial part of the international processes.

Some of the recommendations by International observers to develop a democratic atmosphere in Azerbaijan were; separate state affairs from religion, high quality, free and independent media to promote dialogue with civic society and finally to maintain international democratic standards and comply with OSCE and Council of Europe resolutions and commitments.

Even though the courts of appeal rejected the opposition’s appeals, it would be interesting to observe whether the intensity of talks with the international community will be influential in Azerbaijan’s future elections.

 Sources:

http://avciya.az/eng/uploads/posts/kitablar/elect_2008_in_docs_eng.pdf

http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=cat&catid=143&subcatid=106&lang=EN&page=1

http://www.azerbaijan.az/_News/_news_e.html?lang=en

 

More Azeri Government Restrictions?

Azerbaijan journalist Eynulla Fatullayev, was arrested and thrown in jail in 2007 based on an article the government deemed as a terrorist threat, and some senior elite businessmen were afraid of an attack. November 17, 2008, Fatullayev filed a lawsuit suing the Foreign Minister because the Foreign Minister refused to tell Fatullayev the names of the men who found the article threatening.

This arrest was very unsettling for the United States. The United States perceived it as throwing a potential Azeri journalist in jail since he was not part of the NAP. This could be Azerbaijan’s government cracking down on the opposition, but since the government considered a possibility in rehearing Fatullayev’s case, it gave hope to the United States and other humanitarian organizations that Azerbaijan is not going to restrict the Azeri rights.

Another instance that makes the world nervous is the issue of the main opposition parties website, Azadliq. Azadliq had anti-Aliyev, which was making the government nervous. The intelligence agencies started to crack down on anti-Aliyev and those websites and people who discuss mobilization, protest, and opposition of the NAP. As it turns out, Azadliq’s website was attacked, then the archives of the whole website were deleted, allegedly down by Azeri intelligence.

This further asks the question if Azerbaijan is going to lose more rights with Aliyev’s second term, and if the government is going to turn into a more authoritarian government. This leads me to believe that the opposition is going to have a sudden mobilization by the opposition that the government is not going to expect. When it happens there will be harsh repression from the government, leading Aliyev to more power.


http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184028689&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184026486&cisb=22_T5184026485&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=5

http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184028689&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184026486&cisb=22_T5184026485&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=1

http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5184086549&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5184084899&cisb=22_T5184084898&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=2

OSCE Findings

Even though the official OSCE reports on the October 15, 2008 Presidential elections will take approximately two months to complete, there has been findings by the OSCE. These findings indicated an overall improved electoral process with a few shortcomings. Most of the improvement in this year's election was with the election administration process; observers indicated that there was less interference by the authorities during the process, violence free atmosphere, there was transparency due to the increased presence of international and local non-partisan observers and party lists were available to the public within deadlines. On the other hand there were problems with the existing Election Code, it did not cover matters that might have made a difference in this year's election, these problems included candidate registration matters, media coverage and complaints and appeals processes. While certain changes by the CEC on the election code improved this year's election administration, there is no way to completely assure voting irregularities or violations.

http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/10/34414_en.pdf

The Next 5 Years

Aliyev’s pre-election platform was not a typical platform. He added a lot of propaganda, and did not outline any policies that he would create over the next 5 years. Supporters believe there will be more democratization and reforms, and addition personnel changes with political innovation to catch them up to the rest of the world. The opposition believes that Aliyev will do the opposite, and not worry about Azerbaijan becoming more democratic, leaving the country the way in its current state. Despite pressures Aliyev would receive from the international community, he will become more authoritarian, going back to Soviet conditions.
Either way the Azeri people look at what Aliyev may do, it will be crucial to Azerbaijan, and determine Aliyev’s fate as a politician. Personally, I believe that Aliyev will try to make it a more authoritarian government while still trying to make the Azeri people happy along the way to accept a transition to a more authoritarian government.
Oddly enough, on November 9, 2008, the New Azerbaijan Party proposed to hold a referendum on removing the ban on the number of terms an Azeri president can hold office. Since Aliyev is in his second presidential term, unless this referendum could get passed, the next 5 years is his last 5 years. The NAP states that the constitution should hold no such restriction on the president.
Sure enough the opposition party responded this week on November 10 demanding a fresh presidential election due to “numerous irregularities” (3). This could be because they want their shot to run in the election after they decided that refusing to run would do nothing but be a bad decision when the results came out, or because they are afraid the referendum will be passed.
Main questions regarding this information are that the opposition wants a new election because they regret boycotting the election, or because they are afraid the referendum will be passed? Also, how will the Azeri people respond to no limit to the presidential election? Will the reaction of the referendum be good, or cause suspicion about Aliyev among the Azeri people?

1.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112691255&format=GNBFI&sort=DATE,A,H&startDocNo=76&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112691202&cisb=22_T5112694379&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=76
2.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112879009&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112874014&cisb=22_T5112874013&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=6
3.http://www.lexisnexis.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T5112879009&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T5112874014&cisb=22_T5112874013&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=5

No Protesting - Why?

The day of the election, one walking down the street would not know that it was Election Day. There were no campaign busses, no banners, and no posters. In fact, no real opposition, since the major opposition group refused to take part in the election, claiming the government had “twisted the rules so much that fair competition was impossible” (http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34784389). In fact, in the 2005 Parliamentary election, officials in some precincts became very nervous when the opposition had a majority of the votes. Officials in some of those precincts had the police seize the votes and dispose of them. Even though there have not been results of fraud in this past presidential election, or no protests have occurred, it seems as though there must have been some fraud since it is apparent in past elections. Just because it has not been exposed, it might.
Since there is no protesting going on, maybe they are planning something bigger than a protest. In October 2005, the health minister was arrested after allegedly planning a coup. It is possible that the opposition party is gathering more supporters, perhaps in the government sphere to arrange a successful coup. It is hard to say what is going to occur, but since it has been weeks after the election, this is possibly the only way they think they can get their voice heard in their “free” democratic country.

Sources:
http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34769650
http://web.ebscohost.com/src/detail?vid=5&hid=3&sid=79d5c15f-dc3e-4016-9633-be48a46b4c51%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9c3JjLWxpdmU%3d#db=nfh&AN=34784389
Book: Caucasus Region: Geopolitical Nexus? By: Aleksandro I. Kapidze

Recommendations

With failed attempted public demonstration of dissatisfaction with the Presidential elect and court of appeal rejecting the opposition party’s lawsuit, there is increasing talk of changing Azerbaijan’s constitution. The constitution guarantees a candidate to run for two, 5-year consecutive terms if elected. By changing the constitution, the opposition hopes to create a more competitive environment for democracy to excel. According to the OSCE post-election report, Azerbaijan’s future elections need to meet international standards and promote competitive and robust political atmosphere. Some of the recommendations in the OSCE report include, emphasis on honesty in campaigning and mass media.

http://avciya.az/eng/news/inthecountry/1800-osce-comments-on-presidential-elections.html

http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1327551&lang=EN